Runner Guide for Sunday’s 100th Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
Author:
Roy Brindley
The Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is one of the biggest horse races on the planet. With a €5 million prize-pool, it is Europe’s most valuable race. First run in 1920, the contest has been won by some of the sport’s all-time greats including Alleged, Dancing Brave and Sea The Stars.
In recent years fillies and mares have had an outstanding record in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Treve (2013, 2014) and Enable (2016, 2017) both won the contest in back-to-back years meaning a filly or mare has won six of the last nine running’s of France’s showpiece horse race.
Enable (far side) under Frankie Dettori noses out Sea of Class to win her second Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in 2018. ©GettyImages
With the fairer sex supplying three of the market principles, can that record be improved further in 2021? Will Japan finally win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe after 52 years of trying? Might the forecast heavy rain on race day provide a bottomless surface and contribute to a shock result?
We will have to wait until Sunday afternoon for these and many more questions to be answered. For now, here is a look at the 15 runners in this year’s globally televised Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Adayar (Jockey: William Buick)
One of nine Group 1 winners in the 2021 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe field, Adayar was a brilliant winner of the Derby. He franked the form with an impressive victory in the King George at Ascot beating Mishriff and Love who re-opposes on Sunday.
However, there are three negatives to consider before supporting this short-priced runner: Adayar was beaten on soft ground earlier in the season. He missed an intended prep race with an infection in his hind leg. And he has been drawn in stall 11 – statistically, that can be described as highly unfavorable.
Tarnawa (Jockey: Christophe Soumillon)
Enjoyed an excellent 2020 with four unbeaten runs culminating with victory in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. This Irish-trained mare had previously won twice at Group 1 level here at Longchamp with one of those victories coming on a surface described as ‘heavy’.
Tarnawa was beaten on her prep-race for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe however, that was at Group 1 level in the Irish Champion Stakes where she had legitimate reasons for her narrow defeat. With this race being her year-long target and sure to strip fitter this time, a big run looks inevitable. A draw in stall three is a huge bonus.
Hurricane Lane took the Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance on a heavy track in July. As form guides go, what more could you ask for? ©scoopdyga/France-Galop
Hurricane Lane (Jockey: James Doyle)
Acquired course and distance form when landing the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris on ground described as ‘very soft’ in July. Most recently took his record to six wins from seven starts when landing the St Leger.
A son of the unbeaten and brilliant Frankel, Hurricane Lane’s only defeat came in the Derby behind Adayar. He bounced back to land the Irish Derby meaning his 2021 haul includes three Group 1s. With the ground likely to work in his favor and a great draw coming from stall two, Hurricane Lane looks a solid each-way bet.
Snowfall (Jockey: Ryan Moore)
Another to have won three Group 1s during 2021 – the Oaks, Irish Oaks, and Yorkshire Oaks – this Irish trained filly looked a penalty-kick in her Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe prep-race here at Longchamp. However, she misfired and was beaten at odds of 1/5.
Her 16-length demolition of 13 rivals in the Oaks on soft ground is difficult to forget and, if ignoring her latest defeat, it would be impossible to keep Snowfall out of calculations.
Chrono Genesis (Jockey: Oisin Murphy)
13-lifetime starts have yielded six wins, three seconds, and three thirds for this Japanese runner. She has never raced in Europe but when she contested the Longines Dubai Sheema Classic in Dubai she ran international star Mishrif to a neck.
Like Adayar this Group 1 winner comes with some negatives. Chrono Genesis has no form on a soft surface. A Japanese horse has never won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. She has not raced since June – this is an enormous negative according to the history books – and stall 14 is a troublesome starting position.
Love (Jockey: Frankie Dettori)
Ridden by the remarkable Frankie Dettori – who has won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe six times and will be making his 32nd appearance in the race – Love is sure to have plenty of supporters. However, the brilliance that saw her claim the 1000 Guineas, Oaks, and Yorkshire Oaks in 2020 has not been evident in 2021.
Her latest and third consecutive defeat came at Group 2 level against fillies and mares at the Curragh. That form leaves her with a mountain to climb. Worryingly none of her seven wins have come on a surface described anything other than ‘good’ or ‘good to firm’ and she swerved this race last season due to connections disliking the ‘heavy’ going.
Raabihah (Jockey: Cristian Demuro)
Seemingly the best of the four French-trained runners in the race, Raabihah finished fifth in last season’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. A winner last time out at Group 2 level in Deauville, this four-year-old filly does have plenty of form on testing surfaces.
An infrequent winner – often in small fields – and drawn in the widest starting stall, she’s an unlikely Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe champion. But expect her to have more rivals behind her than in front of her when she crosses the line.
Deep Bond (Jockey: Mickael Barzalona)
Unable to win at Group 1 level in his native Japan and with plenty of form over 15 furlongs Deep Bond’s tilt at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe initially looked adventurous. However, he landed a Group 2 prep-race here at Longchamp three weeks ago to justify his place in the field.
He has a good starting position – goes from stall five – but would have surely achieved more in Japan if he had a realistic chance of victory here. A lack of form on a tacky surface is another obvious concern.
Alenquer lands the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He is lightly raced, improving, and has winning form on both soft and heavy surfaces. ©GettyImages
Alenquer (Jockey: Tom Marquand)
Won the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot on a heavy surface in June. Was thumped seven lengths by Hurricane Lane here at Longchamp afterward but performed better to finish second to Mishrif last time out over ten furlongs.
Lightly raced, improving, and with winning form on both soft and heavy surfaces, very much one to consider in the ‘place only’ betting markets.
Sealiway (Jockey: Franck Blondel)
53/1 second in the French Derby on soft going when last seen in action. An eight-length Group 1 winner during the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe meeting on heavy going last year and fifth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If there is to be a big-priced shock winner on Sunday, this could be the horse to do it.
Being unraced since June is a major negative. A change of trainer is imponderable, a step up in trip is questionable and stall 10 is far from ideal. However, if this French-trained horse were to win Europe’s biggest prize, those writing the race reports will use terms such as “the form was in the book.”
Mojo Star (Jockey: Rossa Ryan)
Took five starts to win a race but a remarkable 50/1 second in the Derby on his third outing. Not so good when a nine length fifth behind Hurricane Lane in the Irish Derby but had that margin down to two-and-three-quarters in the St Leger last time.
Has a peach of a draw from stall one, will not be hindered by soft conditions, and with proven stamina could deliver another big-priced placed effort.
Broome (Jockey: Yutaka Take)
Ridden by Japan’s version of Frankie Dettori, Yutaka Take, Broome is another horse sure to attract plenty of bets. He has almost ten lengths to find with Adayar on King George form but is admirably consistent and will not be inconvenienced by the heavy going.
Second to Deep Bond here at Longchamp three weeks ago, he is short of class at the highest level but is another fancied to make a bold show and beat more than beats him.
The going stick is likely to sink very deeply into the Longchamp grass on Sunday. ©scoopdyga/France-Galop
Bubble Gift (Jockey: Gerald Mosse)
Has won on soft going and took a recognized Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe trial three weeks ago. Clock watchers were not impressed and has almost ten lengths to find with Hurricane Lane on Grand Prix de Paris form.
From a family that loves plowing through the mud and looks like a dour stayer, so maybe his treble-digit price is a little generous.
Torquator Tasso (jockey: Rene Piechulek)
Career-best effort when taking a Group 1 in his native Germany three weeks ago. Has fine form on all surfaces but was beaten on his attempts on ‘soft’ and ‘heavy’. Still not one to dismiss given Star Appeal landed the 1975 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for Germany at odds of 119/1.
Baby Rider (Jockey: Ioritz Mendizabal)
33/1 when well beaten by Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris and finished 14th in the French Derby. Has won at Group 2 level but nothing in his form to suggest he can make an impact on this field.
Verdict
No St Leger winner has gone on to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe but that stat is the only thing not to like about Hurricane Lane given the forecast heavy going he will love. With Adayar having question marks over him, Tarnawa looks like the chief threat and the form she brings to the party means she is the deserved favorite.
Japan has brought better horses and failed to win the race so their two representatives are ignored. It is amazing Love is amongst the entries given her clear dislike of a soft surface. So, others to consider at big prices are the improving Alenquer and Mojo Star. Sealiway makes some appeal as a ‘forgotten horse’ with back-class in his formbook.
Latest Betvictor Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe odds: 9/4 Tarnawa, 5/2 Adayar, 7/2 Hurricane Lane, 9/2 Snowfall, 8/1 Chrono Genesis, 16/1 Raabihah, 16/1 Love, 16/1 Deep Bond, 20/1 Alenquer, 25/1 Sealiway, 33/1 Mojo Star, 50/1 Broome, 66/1 Baby Rider, 66/1 Bubble Gift, 66/1 Torquator Tasso.
